Thursday, December 4, 2014

TABLE 9. SERIOUS DELINQUENCY RATES 2007-2014

http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/investor-relations/monthly-summary.html

TABLE 9. SERIOUS DELINQUENCY RATES
                 No PMI / PMI loans/ Total / Multifamily
January 2006      0.45% 2.12% 0.77% 0.27%
December 2006  0.37% 1.81% 0.65% 0.08%
December 2007  0.53% 2.75% 0.98% 0.08%
August 2008       0.86% 4.26% 1.57% 0.16% FHFA takes over next month
--- conservator bigins----
September 2008 0.96% 4.68% 1.72% 0.16%
December 2008  1.40% 6.42% 2.42% 0.30%
December 2009  3.67% 13.51% 5.38% 0.63%
December 2010  3.40% 10.60% 4.48% 0.71%
December 2011  3.07% 9.10% 3.91% 0.59%
December 2012  2.70% 7.09% 3.29% 0.24%
December 2013  2.00% 4.75% 2.38% 0.10%
October 2014    1.65% 3.56% 1.92% 0.06%

This is where we stand now!
Multifamily NEVER a problem, as you may have heard. Apartment Buildings. (Landlords with Renters)
Definitely Multifamily was never a concern or reason for conservatorship.
December 2007  Was an acceptable Year and delinquency Rate as it tracks 3 years to 2005.
THEN: December 2007  0.53% 2.75% 0.98% 0.08%
NOW:  October 2014    1.65% 3.56% 1.92% 0.06%

Fannie delinquencies are falling about 0.05% per month for single family, in 18 months it will be at 2005-2007 ranges.
February 2010 3.90% 13.80% 5.59% 0.73% was the PEAK of Delinquencies.
August 2012    2.80%   7.56% 3.44% 0.25% Sweep was enacted. Delinquencies by this time had fallen uniformly across the board by about HALF. By the time of the sweep 2.5 years after PEAK it was clear the crisis was over and Fannie would be profitable for the foreseeable future.

This proves three things:
1. It was easy to see in August 2012 that Fannie was about to make a lot of profits since the DTA could only be used once Fannie became profitable.
2. That in 18 months or less Fannie will be on the same ground as far as Delinquencies go, as 2005-2007. Prior to conservatorship.
3. Fannie has been profitable since Late 2011 and since Fannie delinquencies were headed down for over 2 years, it was obvious at the time of sweep that Fannie was about to be in the money in a big way!!






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